Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/20/eu-budget-the-biggest-post-brexit-fight-is-about-to-get-real.html

Analysis:
EU is badly hit by Brexit; with its economical contribution decreases, EU must find ways to make up for the shortfall. Although there are differing views on how on how EU’s budget should be utilized among different policies, it remains to be seen if EU could quickly bounce back from the aftershock of Brexit. With the remaining nations’ economical strength, it is likely that EU can bounce back, albeit with a longer recovery period as EU sorts out its internal issues and to restore confidence in the days ahead.

The talk after 31 Jan ‘s official exit of Britain could signal hope for a rallying Euro after a long time.

General Outlook:

A short-term potential bullish ABCD pattern is seen in EURJPY in the weekly chart for long positions. Price seems to respect previous resistance; with 2 price points unable to break above.

Harmonic Pattern:

Bullish ABCD
Point C: 121.15 (0.382 Fib level)
Point D: 117.55 (2.618 Fib level)
PRZ:
1st line – 117.55
2nd line (AB=CD) – 118.07

Entry:
Once price touches 117.55 and reverse upwards beyond 118.07 with extra confirmation of RSI coming above ’20’ level, the position can be open after candle close at 118.07.

Stop Loss:
Set at next Fib level + Buffer -> 116.83 – (13 pips +1 pip + ATR (7) [0.37] = 116.31

Take Profit Level:
TP1: 0382 – 119.90
TP2: 0.618 – 121.15

Total Risk to Reward Level:
TP1:

TP2:

Trade Management:
Will only open a position at 118.07
a) Will consider aggressive entry at 117.55 if candle formation is seen bullish and to increase RR.

News Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/12/the-ecb-and-fed-are-hoping-the-public-will-give-them-a-new-direction-central-banks.html

Analysis:

With the ECB holding its first ‘listen’ talks with its citizens in Brussels, this could potentially bolster public confidence that their opinions are being heard. With the prolonged weakness in the Euro dollar against the backdrop of Brexit and 0% interest rate, this move may hopefully serve to boost the Euro dollar.

One possible bullish setup is seen in EURCHF weekly chart.

General Market Outlook:

The EURCHF has been in a downtrend. Looking left, the current price has reached levels with tangible support levels. This may be proof that price will possibly bounce off with the help of ECB’s impending public opinion outreach. Below shows the Daily & Weekly Chart with the previous market structures and movement displayed.

Harmonic Pattern:

Bullish BAT-
Point X: 1.0642
Point B: 1.1181 (Fib retracement @ 0.618)
Point C: 1.1497 (Fib retracement @ 0.382)
Point D (PRZ):
– 1.0824 (Fib 0.886)
– 1.0796 (Fib 2.24)
– 1.0682 (Fib 2.24)

Entry:
Waiting for the next candle to hopefully cross back into the PRZ. Will trigger a trade at 1.0824 for the completion of BAT.

Stop loss:
X price + ATR (7) + 1 pip + Spread
= 1.0637 – 0.0082 – 0.0001 – 0.0002 = set at 1.0552

Take Profit Levels:
a) TP1 – Fib 0.382 : 1.1143
b) TP2 – Fib 0.618: 1.1431

Total Risk to Reward Level
TP1: 1.17 (still will take this level as it is executed at Weekly Chart)
TP2: 2.23

Trade Management:
Will only open a position depending on 2 factors:
a) Forming of the next candle must be a bullish one
b) RSI must rise above the Oversold level with the confirmation of a bullish candle
c) Completion of D by crossing all 3 levels within PRZ

Reference to: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-04/trump-administration-clears-way-for-new-currency-tariffs

With the new rule in place, US is expected to wield more muscle in strengthening its dollar using manual intervention. This speculative news might be fuel for the USD pegged currencies like USDCHF towards the bullish side over time.

Analysis:

The Daily chart shows a potential Bullish Bat forming overtime for price to push lower into the RSI oversold area before a turn confirms the Bullish trend up.

Pt X: 0.9622
Pt B: 0.9841
Pt C: 0.9976

The trade engagement should start at 0.9714 if more bullish candles complete at PRZ. The RR is nearly 1:1 (0.9) for TP1 and TP2 is about 1.55.

TP1: 0.9821
TP 2: 0.9898
SL: 0.9595

Ideally, the pattern should complete itself before 11 Mar 2020.